“You know, it’s a bull market!”
— Old Turkey
One of the greatest books ever written about the stock market is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre. It’s full of stories meant to make you a better investor.
And since that’s our mission here at the Daily… today we bring you the story of Old Man Partridge—better known by his colleagues as Old Turkey.
Old Turkey was a veteran trader in the ’20s. He got his name from the way he would strut around the rooms of the building with his head resting on his chest. He looked like a turkey… and the name stuck.
Newer traders would often look to Old Turkey for advice. He had made a lot of money in his lifetime. But his advice was always the same…
Whenever anyone told him a story about selling out of a stock too soon, he’d just say, “You know, it’s a bull market!”
Old Turkey always held stocks during a bull market… and he made a lot of money using that strategy.
And as regular readers know, profitable strategies are what the Daily is all about.
The Winning Move Is Not to Play
For over a century, Wall Street hotshots have traded in and out of stocks, trying to catch large moves every day. This is difficult to do, and most traders wind up failing to beat the market with this strategy.
Why? Because “it’s a bull market.”
Old Turkey didn’t care about the fundamentals of the companies in the stock indexes. Nor did he care about the supply and demand equation of commodities. He knew all the talk about economic growth, budget deficits, and unemployment rates was just that—talk.
As Lefèvre wrote of Old Turkey’s strategy, “the big money was not in individual fluctuations but in the main movements—that is not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”
The direction of the trend was all Old Turkey needed to know. And when it was going up, he held on.
The Uptrend Is Clear
Right now, we are in a bull market. Anyone wanting to channel Old Turkey is long the market. Some people have different ideas of what makes a bull market, but I’m sure the chart below meets everyone’s definition.
You can clearly see that stocks are in an uptrend. And as long as prices stay above the red line, we should be long stocks.
Any fluctuations that bring prices close to the line are just noise. Ignore them.
I understand that buying into U.S. stocks near all-time highs is tough. But it’s the hardest trades that can be the most profitable.
Right now, owning stocks is profitable… As long as the S&P stays above that red line, hold on.
Nick Rokke, CFA
Analyst, The Palm Beach Daily
P.S. Teeka is following one of the biggest emerging trends in the world right now. It’s a trend so important, he’ll be taking over The Palm Beach Daily for the next few days to tell you about it. This trend is the one Teeka, myself, and a lot of other people in the office are most excited about…
If you want to get in on the ground floor of some of the most profitable plays we’ve ever seen, you won’t want to miss The Palm Beach Daily this coming week.
There’s one stock that trend followers are surely watching this week: Tesla (TSLA).
As you can see in the chart below, Tesla mostly traded in a wide range between $180 and $280 for over three years. But just last week, that all changed… and it broke out to all-time highs.
A breakout is when a stock or commodity busts through to a new price level. This strategy works in both bull and bear markets.
But none of this matters to a trend follower. Their play is to buy shares right now and ride the gains that should follow.
Scalping the Scalpers: In an effort to push back against ticket resellers buying seats in bulk and selling them at a huge premium, startup Lava is building an anti-fraud, blockchain-based ticket exchange platform. When it debuts, users will be able to purchase and sell tickets at face value privately or directly from the distributor. This is yet another example of how the blockchain is upending old payment systems and rewriting the future of transactions.
Motor City, Meet Silicon Valley: In an unprecedented upset Monday morning, automaker and energy storage company Tesla overtook General Motors to become the most valuable car company in America. While this might sound impressive, bear in mind that Tesla enjoys only a 0.2% total market share, nowhere close to GM’s 17.3% dominance. Still, if Tesla manages to pioneer and perfect the electric car business, before long, old-school industry titans will need to rethink their approach.
Dancing Around a Trade War: In recent talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the two discussed allowing better access for foreign investments into Chinese financial sectors and lifting the ban on U.S. beef exports to the world’s second-largest economic superpower. While these moves would relax China’s $347 billion trade surplus that has it in hot water with our current administration, after Jinping’s departure, President Trump remarked, “Only time will tell on trade.”